Value factor: how to look for profit on rates?
Value factor: how to look for profit on rates?July 10, 2019 By domainke 0 comments
Value (or value) is a term that is familiar to all players in modern betting. Although about 10 years ago this word caused an astonished expression on the face of many sports betting enthusiasts and a complete misunderstanding of what was at stake. Now everyone understands that value is, more simply, a bet with an overestimated coefficient, according to the player himself. Surely, each of you, at least once or twice, when viewing the line for a championship, caught yourself thinking that the coefficient for an event was overestimated and deserves additional attention. This is the value. Some players believe that value betting is a strategy that guarantees profit over a distance. But it will be more accurate to say that this is a special approach to betting on the part of players who expect to take sports betting more seriously and turn them more from a simple game to real money. Of course, no matter how a person is versed in sports and the search for value, betting cannot be regarded as a real way to earn a living – nevertheless, many other factors play a role in betting, which deprives betting of a guaranteed income. But, having learned to find the real value, the player can not only raise his level of play against the bookmaker but also increase the chances of winning.
Value is an advantage over a line, or a value bet for a player.
In fact, it turns out that value is an advantage over the line, or a value bet for the player, because the bettor is faced with the task of guaranteeing profit for himself at the expense of this very advantage, while bookmakers have guaranteed earnings in the form of margins. It is customary to divide value into two types – objective and subjective. The first option implies a mathematical justification for the choice, but the latter is based on the pure opinion of the player, who in some version observes a much greater chance of passing the bet than the bookmaker itself.
I myself am more a supporter of the second option, but it is impossible not to touch on the topic of the first. To calculate the objective value, there is a formula K * P> 1 (K is the coefficient set by the bookmaker, P is the probability of passage in tenths, 1 is 100% probability). For a better understanding of the reader, I will use an example from the Internet for this formula, which is associated with tennis. If there are two equal tennis players and the bookmaker is of the same opinion, then the quotes in the line will be equal for the victory of both tennis players (for example, 1.9 to 1.9 – depending on the margin of the BC) – this is a disadvantageous bet for the player, but beneficial for the bookmaker due to margin. But if two equal tennis players meet and the player understands this, then he sees that the bookmaker puts quotes like 1.7 on 2.15. The player understands that there are equal opponents, but the bookmaker lays in the victory of one of the tennis players, the probability is less than 50%. Therefore, the bettor will take the side of the underdog, according to the bookmaker – because this is a more profitable bet when meeting equal rivals, and therefore value. According to the formula, the following is obtained: 2.15 x 0.5 = 1.1> 1. The resulting number is higher than one, which means that the bet itself has a good weight.
Many players are accustomed to determining the value “by eye”.
However, not everyone uses the formula, and many players are accustomed to defining the value “by eye”. To do this, first of all, it is necessary to closely monitor a particular sport, but rather a specific championship, to be aware of all the news and regularly observe not only the results but also the game that the teams demonstrate in this championship. Such a bettor will have a much better chance of finding an advantage in the line than an ordinary player in the BC, who relies for the most part on the tournament position and team names, following the primitive logic of betting on favorites, in the style of Real Pe 1.
Value in rates can (and even need) to be found in the line just released. For example, in the playoffs of Euro cups, many bookmakers tend to lay out the line as quickly as possible and only later adjust it – depending on the flow of bets and making personal quotes after deeper analysis. Of course, betting in advance is not always beneficial for the players themselves, but it often happens that even the possible absence of some players cannot influence the choice. For example, the draw brings two attacking and productive teams according to their style of play, and the bookmaker gives a high coefficient for a total more. It is logical to assume that within a week quotes in this direction will sink very much due to the activity of players and it is better to take options of this kind in advance. Then you will get an advantage over the further line. However, this may apply not only to European cups (if we are talking about football) but also to regular championships. Increasingly, bookmakers tend to lay the line several rounds ahead and do not always have time to adjust quotes in time. And in the course of an earlier round, the player can get information about disqualifications, injuries and the importance of the match for one of the sides of the match, which will help to assess the situation in advance and find a valuable option in the line, which then many players will play much cheaper, which means it is unprofitable.
It is also worth highlighting personal meetings of the giants, where in recent years quite often we see noticeable distortions in one of the parties, which often causes bewilderment. Of course, there are real differences in the current form of teams, but still, when in a meeting of two giants one of the teams is five or higher, this raises questions and should attract attention. Regularly, such bets will not be successful, but at a distance, they should be profitable. This season, it’s enough to recall Manchester United’s victories over Juventus and PSG away or the home success of Borussia against Bavaria (in this case, the Dortmund players cost a little more than three – but they played at home and were much more preferable than Bavaria »According to the current form, and in no way besides valuing such a choice could not be called).
It will be much easier to search for Valui in championships that do not belong to the “top” category.
Do not forget that it will be much easier to search for value in championships that do not belong to the “top” category. Indeed, it is the latter that bookmakers are most attentive to because it is in the top leagues that the largest flows of money are making it very dangerous for a bookmaker to make mistakes there. And the attention to small markets is much less from the side of bookmakers, and it is much easier for experienced players to find an edge over the line for themselves.
Today we talked about the value in rates, in other words – the advantage over the line. This is a very useful thing for players, but finding one comes with experience. Beginners need to remember that in order to find an edge over the line, you need to carefully monitor a specific championship or several and be aware of all the news. Best of all very quickly. In addition, it is important to learn how to give your own assessment of a particular match and be able to guess the approximate quotes that a bookmaker for a game will give. Assessing the situation before looking at the betting line, it will be much easier after finding the same value. And do not forget that it is easier to find the odds themselves on the small markets, to which the bookmaker is less attentive.